Oil is currently $120 a barrel and likely according to all sources, to go up in the coming year.
If you are in the UK, you’re under 25, have a reasonable job and you want to drive you can probably just afford to buy a second hand car. The idea of a 25 year old with a reasonable job is already narrowing the percentage considerably, youth unemployment is currently at an all time high. However even if they are able to buy an old clunker, doubtful they’ll be able to afford the insurance. When I tried to get my then 17 year old son added to my insurance policy the quote I was given was £4,800 for a year. Guess what, my son can’t drive. He has no interest in learning, he lives in a city, uses a bike or public transport.
It is becoming increasingly clear to motor manufacturers that a generation is growing up with little interest in cars and even less prospect of joining the masses ranks of car drivers. Obviously this is in the West, countries like India and China are in a very different situation with young people very enthusiastic to become car owners and drivers.
But if a generation grows up who can’t drive and don’t want to learn, the whole car industry and it’s complex associated resources will be very powerfully affected.
On the other hand, the more the oil price goes up, the more energy will be put into developing and manufacturing electric vehicles. That has to be balanced against the fact that the oil price affects pretty much everything, cost of food, transport, medicine, everything really. We are all addicted, cold turkey isn’t going to be fun.